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Cannabis Companies are Bad at Forecasting



In Hexo Corp.’s fiscal third-quarter earnings call in 2019, Chief Executive Sebastien St.-Louis made a bold statement for a cannabis industry executive: “If you ever hear me say something and not deliver, you have to call me out.”

MKM Partners analyst Bill Kirk and his team did just that Monday.

The analyst and his team pored over every transcript for the six Canadian pot companies they cover and determined that executives made 947 promises, predictions or forecasts for the future. Then the analysts figured out how many were right, wrong or remain unknown.

Weed executives were right 51% of the time for predictions they made where the outcome is clear. “The group’s predictions were no better than a coin flip,” Kirk wrote.

Pot executives were very good at making forecasts about things in the sector going wrong, being correct 93% of the time, according to Kirk’s analysis. But marijuana company leaders were not very good at judging their own limitations and made bold promises that only lived up to reality 48% of the time.

“As a result, it is difficult to rely on company commentary about positive expectations, but if they are making negative commentary, investors should take notice.” Kirk wrote.

Via: Marketwatch.Com


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